Os planos de recuperação econômica pós-COVID-19 na encruzilhada das mudanças climáticas

Visualizações: 578

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20336/rbs.763

Palabras clave:

Covid-19, mudanças climáticas, crise econômica

Resumen

O presente artigo investiga as consequências da crise econômica instaurada pela pandemia de COVID-19 sobre as políticas de combate às mudanças climáticas. Com base num levantamento bibliográfico sobre as alterações na química atmosférica dos centros urbanos, apontamos que a queda nas emissões de gases responsáveis pelo efeito estufa representou uma consequência direta, porém não intencionada, das políticas de lockdown e isolamento social. Dado que essa redução tende a ser passageira e insuficiente para responder aos desafios da “emergência climática”, apresentamos uma análise crítica e prospectiva sobre as repercussões ambientais dos pacotes de recuperação econômica pós-pandemia e o risco de que estratégias orientadas exclusivamente pela retomada do crescimento provoquem um “efeito rebote” com consequências irreversíveis e calamitosas para os esforços de contenção do aquecimento global.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Biografía del autor/a

Luiz Enrique Vieira de Souza, Universidade Federal da Bahia

Doutor em Sociologia pela Universidade de São Paulo (2012). Professor do Departamento de Sociologia da Universidade Federal da Bahia.

Marcelo Fetz, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo

Doutorado em Sociologia pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (2012). Professor do Departamento de Ciências Sociais da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo. 

Citas

Artaxo, Paulo. (2020). As três emergências que nossa sociedade enfrenta: saúde, biodiversidade e mudanças climáticas. Estudos Avançados, 34(100), 53-66. https://doi.org/10.1590/s0103-4014.2020.34100.005

Associação dos Advogados dos Trabalhadores Rurais (AATR). (2020, 1 jul.). Bahia já autorizou o desmatamento de 34.307,712 ha durante a pandemia. AATR. https://www.aatr.org.br/post/bahia-j%C3%A1-autorizou-o-desmatamento-de-34-307-712-ha-durante-a-pandemia

Boffey, Daniel. (2020, 8 abr.). Amsterdam to embrace “doughnut” model to mend post-coronavirus economy. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/amsterdam-doughnut-model-mend-post-coronavirus-economy

Bolin, Bert. (2007). A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

Caradonna, Jeremy. (2014). Sustainability: a history. Oxford University Press.

Calrson, Colin J., Albery, Gregory F., & Phelan, Alexandra. (2021). Preparing International Cooperation on Pandemic Prevention for the Anthropocene. BMJ Global Health, 6(3), e004254. https://doi.org/101136/bmjgh-2020-004254

Chen, Kai, Wang, Meng, & Huang, Conghong. (2020). Air pollution reduction and mortality benefit during the COVID-19 outbreack in China. The Lancet Health, 4(6), e210-e212. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(20)30107-8

Chinazzi, Matteo, Davis Jessica, & Ajelli, Marco. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science, 368(6489), 395-400. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757

Chintalapudi, Nalini, Battineme, Gopi, & Amenta, Francesco. (2020). COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty-day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach. Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection, 53(3), 396-403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmii.2020.04.004

Cucinotta, Domenico, & Vanelli, Maurizio. (2020). WHO Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic. Acta Bio-medica: Atenei Parmensis, 91(1), 157-160. https://doi.org/10.23750/abm.v91i1.9397

Dantas, Guilherme, Siciliano, Bruno, França, Bruno B., Silva, Cleyton M., & Arbilla, Graciela. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 partial lockdown on the air quality of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Science of Total Environment, (729), 139085. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.scitotenv.2020.139085

Dolhnikoff, Marisa et al. (2020). Pathological evidence of pulmonary thrombotic phenomena in severe COVID‐19. Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis, 18(6), 1517-1519. https://doi.org/10.1111/jth.14844

Edgerton, David. (2006). Warfare State: Britain, 1920-1970. Cambridge University Press.

Edwards, Paul N. (2010). A vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global. The MIT Press.

European Comission. (2020). Europe’s moment: repair and prepare for the next generation. European Comission. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_940

Feola, Giuseppe. (2020, 16 abr.). Manifesto for post-neoliberal development: five policy strategies for the Netherlands after the Covid-19 crisis. Ontgroei. https://ontgroei.degrowth.net/manifesto-for-post-neoliberal-development-five-policy-strategies-for-the-netherlands-after-the-covid-19-crisis/

Friedman, Lisa. (2020, 10 jun.). E.P.A, citing Coronavirus, drastically relaxes rules for polluters. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/climate/epa-coronavirus-pollution-rules.html

GERIMA – Grupo de Pesquisa em Relações Internacionais e Meio Ambiente. (2020, 17 abr.). Covid-19 e a emergência climática: conexões e desafios. Le Monde Diplomatique. https://diplomatique.org.br/covid-19-e-a-emergencia-climatica-conexoes-e-desafios/

Greenpeace. (2020). ECB injects over €7 billion into fossil fuels since start of COVID-19 crisis. Greenpeace. https://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/issues/climate-energy/3933/ecb-injects-e7-billion-into-fossil-fuels-coronavirus-crisis/

Giddens, Anthony. (2010). A política da mudança climática. Zahar.

Gilbert, Dominic. (2020, 19 abr.). Which countries are under lockdown – and is it working?. The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/16/countries-in-lockdown-denmark-germany/

Harvey, Fiona. (2020, 11 dez.). Rebound in carbon emissions expected in 2021 after fall caused by Covid. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/11/rebound-in-carbon-emissions-expected-in-2021-after-fall-caused-by-covid

Hepburn, Cameron, O’Callaghan, Brian, Stern, Nicholas, Stiglitz, Joseph, & Zenghelis, Dimitri. (2020). Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progresso n climate change? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(S1), S359–S381. http://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/graa015

IEA – International Energy Agency. (2021). After Steep drop in Early 2020, Global Carbon Emissions have Rebounded Strongly. IEA. https://www.iea.org/news/after-steep-drop-in-early-2020-global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-have-rebounded-strongly

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021). AR6 climate change 2021: the physical science basis. IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

Kerimray, Aiymgul, Baimatova, Nassiba, Ibragimova, Olga P., Bukenov, Bauyrzhan, Kenessov, Bulat, Plotitsyn, Pavel, & Karaca, Ferhat. (2020). Assessing air quality changes in large cities during COVID-19 lockdowns: the impacts of traffic-free urban conditions in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Science of the Total Environment, (730), 139179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139179

Krecl, Patricia, Targiro, Admir, Oukawa, Gabriel Y., & Cassino Jr., Regis P. (2020). Drop in air pollution from COVID-19 pandemic: policy implications for the megacity of São Paulo. Environment Pollution, (265), 114883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114883

Kucharski, Adam J. et al. (2020). Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet: Infectious Diseases, 20(5), 553-558. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4

Lal, Preet et al. (2020). The dark cloud with a silver lining: assessing the impact of SARS COVID-19 pandemic on the global environment. Science of the Total Environment, (732), 139297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139297

Le-Queré, Corinne, Jackson, Robert B., & Jones, Matthew W. (2020). Temporary reductions in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nature Climate Change, 10, 647-653. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x

Li, Xinhai, Zhao, Xumao, & Sun, Yuehua. (2020). “The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing”. MedRxiv, preprint. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021477

Long, Jessica, Gordon, Lizzie, & Townend, Ruth. (2020). Now what? Climate change & Coronavirus. Ipsos.

Mackenzie, Debora. (2012, 4 jan.). Boom and doom: revisiting prophecies of collapse. New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21328462-100-boom-and-doom-revisiting-prophecies-of-collapse/

Marques, Luiz. (2020a, 5 maio). A pandemia incide no ano mais importante da história da humanidade. Serão as próximas zoonoses gestadas na Amazônia? Jornal da Unicamp. https://www.uni-camp.br/unicamp//index.php/noticias/2020/05/05/pandemia-incide-o-ano-mais-importante-da-historia-da-humanidade-serao-proximas

Marques, Luiz. (2020b). Pandemics, existential and non-existential risks to humanity. Ambiente & Sociedade, (23), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4422asoc20200126vu2020L3ID

Mastini, Riccardo, Kallis, Giorgio, & Hackel, Jason. (2021). A Green New Deal without growth. Ecological Economics, 179(C), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106832

Mcneill, Faye V. (2020). COVID-19 and the air we breathe. Earth and space chemistry, 4(5), 674-675. https://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.0c00093

Meadows, Donella H, Meadows, Dennis L, Randers, Jørgen, Behrens III, William W. (1972). The limits to growth: a report for the club of Rome’s project on the predicament of mankind. Universe Books.

Moore, Mark. (2009). The Union of Concerned Scientists on the uncertainty of climate change: a study of synecdochic form. Environmental Communication, 3(2), 191-205.

Morens, David, Daszak, Peter, Markel, Howard, & Taubenberger, Jeffery K. (2020). Pandemic COVID-19 joins History’s pandemic legion. MBio, 11(3), e00812-20. https://doi.org/10.1128/mBio.00812-20

Myllyvirta, Lauri. (2020, 19 fev.). Analysis: Coronavirus temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter. CarbonBrief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter

Nakada, Liane, & Urban, Rodrigo. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic: Impacts on the air quality during the partial lockdown in São Paulo state, Brazil. Science of the Total Environment, (730), 139087. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139087

Peters, Glen P., Marland, Gregg, Le Quéré, Corinne, Boden, Thomas, Canadell, Josep G., & Raupach, Michael R. (2012). Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, (2), 2-4. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332

Pontes, Nadia. (2020, 15 abr.). O elo entre desmatamento e epidemias investigado pela ciência. Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/pt-br/o-elo-entre-desmatamento-e-epidemias-investigado-pela-ci%C3%AAncia/a-53135352

Qin, Yuanwei et al. (2021). Carbon loss from forest degradation exceeds that from deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Nature Climate Change, (11), 442-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01026-5

Rosenbloom, Daniel, & Markard, Jochen. (2021). Editorial: A COVID-19 recovery for climate. Science, 368(6490), 447. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc4887

Ren, Xuefei. (2020). Pandemic and lockdown: a territorial approach to COVID-19 in China, Italy and the United States. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 61(4-5), 423-434. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2020.1762103

Shrestha, Asheshwor, Shrestha, Uttam, & Sharma, Roshan. (2020). Lockdown caused by COVID-19 pandemic reduces air pollution in cities worldwide. EarthArXiv, preprint. https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/edt4j

Siciliano, Bruno, Dantas, Guilherme, Silva, Cleyton M., Arbilla, Graciela. (2020). Increased ozone levels during the COVID-19 lockdown: analysis for the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Science of the Total Environment, (737), 139765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139765

Simmons, Matthew. (2000, out.). Revisiting “The Limits to Growth”: could the Club of Rome have been correct, after all? Mudcity Pree [An energy white paper]. https://mudcitypress.com/PDF/clubofrome.pdf

Sikarwar, Vineet S., Reichert, Annika, Jeremias, Michal, & Manovic, Vasilije. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic and global carbon dioxide emissions: a first assessment. Science of the Total Environment, 794, 148770. https://10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148770

Souza, Luiz E. V. (2021). Civilização ecológica ou colapso ambiental. In R. Musse (Org.), China contemporânea: seis interpretações (pp. 163-192). Autêntica.

Souza, Luiz. E. V., Fetz, Marcelo, Zagatto, Bruna P., & Pinho, Nataly S. (2021). Violence and illegal deforestation: the crimes of “environmental militias” in the Amazon Forest. Capitalism Nature Socialism. https://doi.org/10.1080/10455752.2021.1980817

Steichen, Lorah, & Koshgarian, Lindsay. (2021). No warming, no militarism: how militarism fuels the climate crisis – and vice versa. Institute for Policy Studies. https://ips-dc.org/climate-militarism-primer/

Stiglitz, Joseph. (2020, 5 maio). “Não desperdicem esta crise”. Entrevista de Gianrico Carofiglio com Joseph Stiglitz. Tradução de Luisa Rabolini. Revista IHU, (546). https://www.ihu.unisinos.br/598577-nao-desperdicem-esta-crise-entrevista-com-joseph-stiglitz

The Lancet. (2020). India under COVID-19 lockdown. The Lancet, 395(10233), 1315. https://10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30938-7

Tankersley, Jim, & Friedman, Lisa. (2021, 4 nov.). Even as Biden pushes clean energy, he seeks more oil production. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/01/climate/biden-oil-gas-cop26.html

Topham, Gwyn, & Harvey, Fiona. (2020, 27 mar.). Carmakers accused of trying to use crisis to avert emissions crackdown. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/27/carmakers-accused-of-using-covid-19-weaken-environmental-laws

Turner, Graham, & Alexander, Cathy. (2014, 2 set.). “Limits to Growth” was right. New research shows we’re nearing collapse. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

UNEP/INTERPOL. (2016). The rise of environmental crime. A growing threat to natural resources, peace, development and security [Report].

Wang, Pengfei, Chen, Kaiyu, & Zhu, Shenqiang. (2020). Severe air pollution not avoided by reduced anthropogenic activities during COVID-19 outbreak. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 158, 104814. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104814

Xiao Yonghong, & Torok, Mili E. (2020). Taking the right measures to control COVID-19. The Lancet: Infectious Diseases, 20(5), 523-524. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30152-3

Watanabe, Phillippe. (2021, 28 out.). Brasil aumenta 9,5% emissões de gases-estufa em 2020, apesar da pandemia. Folha de São Paulo. https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ambiente/2021/10/brasil-aumenta-95-emissoes-de-gases-estufa-em-2020-apesar-da-pandemia.shtml

Zambrano-Monserrate, Manuel, Ruano, Maria A., & Sanchez-Alcalde, Luis. (2020). Indirect effects of COVID-19 on the environment. Science of the Total Environment, (728), 138813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138813

Zhang, Weituo, Qian, Bi-yun. (2020). Making decisions to mitigate COVID-19 with limited knowledge. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(10), 1121-1122. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30280-2

Zhu, Na, Zhang, Dingyu, & Wang, Wenling. (2020). A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. New England Journal of Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017

Publicado

31-12-2021

Cómo citar

Souza, L. E. V. de, & Fetz, M. (2021). Os planos de recuperação econômica pós-COVID-19 na encruzilhada das mudanças climáticas. Revista Brasileña De Sociología, 9(23), 97–120. https://doi.org/10.20336/rbs.763